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Peter H. Duesberg^1,*, Daniele Mandrioli¹, Amanda McCormack¹, Joshua M. Nicholson², David Rasnick³, Christian Fiala⁴, Claus Koehnlein⁵, Henry H. Bauer² and Marco Ruggiero⁶

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Summary

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3) Population statistics of South Africa. In an effort to obtain further independent evidence for HIV-dependent life losses, we looked for a corresponding decline in the population growth trajectory of South Africa. Unexpectedly we found that the population of South Africa had increased by 3 million from 2000 to 2005, based on concordant statistics from South Africa and the US Census Bureau (Statistics South Africa, 2007; US Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2008). As shown in Tab. 1 and Fig.
4A, this gain extended a steady growth trajectory of South Africa from 29 million in 1980 to 47.5 million in 2005, which then continued at the same steady rate (Statistics South Africa, 2000; Statistics South Africa 2007; US Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2008). The change of the growth trajectory predicted by the losses of 300,000 per year for 6 years is shown as a hypothetical branch of the observed monotonic growth curve in Fig. 3A. But the actual growth curve did not show any evidence for such loss-
es. In sum, the South African population grew steadily during the period from 2000-2005, extending a long-established growth trajectory. Indeed, this growth curve has been so consistently monotonic that it predicted exactly the increase of the South African population by 3 million between 2000 and 2005 (see Tab. 1, Fig. 4A).

Table 1 – Population statistics of South Africa from 1980 until 2008.

(a)Statistics South Africa and US Census Bureau (Statistics South Africa, 2007; Statistics South Africa, 2000; US Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2008).

(b)National Department of Health South Africa (National Department of Health South Africa, 2007).

(c)  Statistics South Africa (Statistics South Africa, 2007; Statistics South Africa, 2008) Statistics South Africa. Mor- tality and causes of death in South Africa, 2006: Findings from death notification. Statistics South Africa, 2008.

*Not reported because HIV-deaths were below 10^th rank.

Moreover, a new viral epidemic causing steady losses of 300,000 per year for 6 years is not compatible with the classic germ theory of disease. Instead, the germ theory predicts that new viruses and microbes cause epidemics that rise exponentially, because of exponential growth and spread of microbes, and then fall exponentially, because of the resulting immunity and deaths within several months, rather than go steady over 6 years (see Fig. 1 and Introduction). HIV has been demonstrated 20 years
ago to induce anti-viral immunity - but not AIDS - within several weeks after infection (Clark et al, 1991; Daar et al, 1991), just like any other virus (Duesberg, 1989). Thus a new virus could have been a plausible explanation for a seasonal epidemic of several months within a given year, but not for a steady loss of lives for 6 years in a row.

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The hypothesis that HIV is a passenger predicts that its spread and prevalence do not coincide with mortality. To test this prediction we investigated the effect of the spread and prevalence of HIV on the population growth curve of South Africa.

Table 2 – Population statistics of Uganda from 1980 to 2008.

a) US Census Bureau (US Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2008).

For this purpose we plotted the HIV-antibody prevalence of the South African popula- tion reported by the National Department of Health South Africa since 1990 (Department of Health South Africa, 2007) on a separate panel of Fig. 4, which shows the population growth curve of South Africa. Fig. 4B shows that anti-HIV antibodies were first detected in 1990 in 0.7% of the population. This percentage then increased gradually (not exponentially!) over about 10 years until 2000, when it leveled off between 25 and 30%.

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