Peter H. Duesberg1,*, Daniele Mandrioli1, Amanda McCormack1, Joshua M. Nicholson2, David Rasnick3, Christian Fiala4, Claus Koehnlein5, Henry H. Bauer2 and Marco Ruggiero6
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Table 1 – Population statistics of South Africa from 1980 until 2008.
Year Population | HIV+ | HIV-Death | |
x10-3 (a) | % (b) | x10-3 (c) | |
1980 | 29,300 | ||
1981 | 30,200 | ||
1982 | 31,100 | ||
1983 | 32,100 | ||
1984 | 33,200 | ||
1985 | 34,300 | ||
1986 | 35,100 | ||
1987 | 35,900 | ||
1988 | 36,800 | ||
1989 | 37,600 | ||
1990 | 38,500 | 0.7 | |
1991 | 39,300 | 1.7 | |
1992 | 40,100 | 2.2 | |
1993 | 40,900 | 4.0 | |
1994 | 41,600 | 7.6 | |
1995 | 42,200 | 10.4 | |
1996 | 42,800 | 14.4 | |
1997 | 43,300 | 17.0 | * |
1998 | 43,900 | 22.8 | * |
1999 | 44,500 | 22.4 | 10.0 |
2000 | 45,100 | 24.5 | 10.5 |
2001 | 45,600 | 24.8 | * |
2002 | 46,100 | 26.5 | * |
2003 | 46,600 | 27.9 | * |
2004 | 47,000 | 29.5 | 13.0 |
2005 | 47,500 | 30.2 | 14.5 |
2006 | 47,900 | 29.1 | |
2007 | 48,400 | 28.0 | |
2008 | 48,800 | ||
(a)Statistics South Africa and US Census Bureau (Statistics South Africa, 2007; Statistics South Africa, 2000; US Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2008).
(b)National Department of Health South Africa (National Department of Health South Africa, 2007).
(c) Statistics South Africa (Statistics South Africa, 2007; Statistics South Africa, 2008) Statistics South Africa. Mor- tality and causes of death in South Africa, 2006: Findings from death notification. Statistics South Africa, 2008.
*Not reported because HIV-deaths were below 10th rank.
Moreover, a new viral epidemic causing steady losses of 300,000 per year for 6 years is not compatible with the classic germ theory of disease. Instead, the germ theory predicts that new viruses and microbes cause epidemics that rise exponentially, because of exponential growth and spread of microbes, and then fall exponentially, because of the resulting immunity and deaths within several months, rather than go steady over 6 years (see Fig. 1 and Introduction). HIV has been demonstrated 20 years
ago to induce anti-viral immunity - but not AIDS - within several weeks after infection (Clark et al, 1991; Daar et al, 1991), just like any other virus (Duesberg, 1989). Thus a new virus could have been a plausible explanation for a seasonal epidemic of several months within a given year, but not for a steady loss of lives for 6 years in a row.
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Year | Population x 10-3 (a) |
1980 | 12,400 |
1981 | 12,700 |
1982 | 13,100 |
1983 | 13,500 |
1984 | 13,900 |
1985 | 14,400 |
1986 | 14,900 |
1987 | 15,600 |
1988 | 16,200 |
1989 | 16,800 |
1990 | 17,500 |
1991 | 18,100 |
1992 | 18,700 |
1993 | 19,400 |
1994 | 20,100 |
1995 | 20,700 |
1996 | 21,200 |
1997 | 21,900 |
1998 | 22,500 |
1999 | 23,200 |
2000 | 24,000 |
2001 | 24,700 |
2002 | 25,500 |
2003 | 26,300 |
2004 | 27,200 |
2005 | 28,200 |
2006 | 29,200 |
2007 | 30,300 |
2008 | 31,400 |
a) US Census Bureau (US Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2008).
For this purpose we plotted the HIV-antibody prevalence of the South African popula- tion reported by the National Department of Health South Africa since 1990 (Department of Health South Africa, 2007) on a separate panel of Fig. 4, which shows the population growth curve of South Africa. Fig. 4B shows that anti-HIV antibodies were first detected in 1990 in 0.7% of the population. This percentage then increased gradually (not exponentially!) over about 10 years until 2000, when it leveled off between 25 and 30%.
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